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[size= 14px]Trong the gioi ket qua bong da, moi tran dau la mot vu dieu chien thuat day kich tinh, va nguoi ham mo luon tim kiem nhung con so de giai ma su thanh bai. Trong so do, so cu sut (shots on target va tong so cu sut) thuong duoc coi la mot chi so quan trong, phan anh suc ep va su ap dao cua mot doi bong. Nhung lieu viec so huu nhieu cu sut hon co thuc su dong nghia voi chien thang? Bai viet nay se di sau phan tich moi lien he phuc tap giua so luong cu sut va ket qua bong da cuoi cung, giup nguoi xem co cai nhin da chieu hon ve thong ke tren san co.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Dinh Nghia So Cu Sut va Tam Quan Trong Ban Dau[/size]

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[size= 14px]Thong ke bong da hien dai phan loai cu sut thanh nhieu loai. Cu sut trung dich (shots on target) la thuoc do truc tiep nhat ve kha nang uy hiep khung thanh doi phuong, buoc thu mon phai tro tai hoac bong phai di vao luoi. Nguoc lai, tong so cu sut bao gom ca nhung pha dut diem di chech cot doc, bi doi phuong chan lai, hoac bay vot xa.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Ban dau, logic la kha ro rang: doi nao sut nhieu hon, doi do kiem soat tran dau tot hon, tao ra nhieu co hoi hon, va do do, co kha nang ghi ban cao hon. Trong nhieu truong hop, mot doi bong ap dao hoan toan voi ty le kiem soat bong vuot troi va so lan dut diem gap doi doi thu thuong se gianh duoc ket qua bong da nhu mong doi. Day la co so de cac nha phan tich va nguoi ham mo danh gia suc manh tan cong.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Nghich Ly "Sut Nhieu, Thua Dau"[/size]

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[size= 14px]Tuy nhien, bong da la mon the thao cua nhung dieu bat ngo. Chung ta da chung kien vo so tran dau ma mot doi dut diem 20 lan nhung khong ghi noi ban nao, trong khi doi thu chi co 3 cu sut trung dich va gianh chien thang 2-0. Hien tuong nay khong chi la may man don thuan; no phoi bay nhung diem yeu trong viec danh gia hieu qua tan cong.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Yeu to then chot o day la hieu suat chuyen hoa co hoi (Conversion Rate). Mot cu sut duoc coi la chat luong khi no den tu vi tri thuan loi, goc sut ly tuong, va co du luc de danh bai thu mon. Nhieu cu sut tu xa (long shots) – thuong duoc tinh vao tong so cu sut – co xac suat thanh ban rat thap. Mot doi bong co the "bom" so lieu thong ke bang nhung cu sut voi vang tu ngoai vong cam, nhung lai thieu di nhung pha phoi hop sac net buoc doi phuong phai vao luoi nhat bong.[/size]

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[size= 14px]XG (Expected Goals): Thuoc Do Chat Luong Cu Sut[/size]

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[size= 14px]De giai quyet su thien vi cua thong ke "so luong", cac mo hinh thong ke nang cao nhu Expected Goals (xG) da ra doi. xG uoc tinh xac suat mot cu sut cu the dan den ban thang dua tren vi tri, loai kien tao, va cac yeu to khac.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Khi so sanh so cu sut voi chi so xG, buc tranh ve ket qua bong da tro nen minh bach hon. Mot doi thang voi xG thap hon nhung so cu sut cao hon cho thay ho dang lang phi co hoi hoac chon nhung tinh huong dut diem kem chat luong. Nguoc lai, doi chien thang voi xG cao hon, du so cu sut co the ngang bang hoac thap hon, chung to ho da tao ra nhung co hoi "sat thuong" cao hon. Day la su khac biet giua viec "sut cho co" va "sut de ghi ban".[/size]

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[size= 14px]Yeu To Phong Ngu va Chien Thuat Trong Ket Qua Bong Da[/size]

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[size= 14px]So cu sut cung chiu anh huong lon boi chien thuat phong ngu. Mot doi bong choi lui sau, tap trung bit kin khong gian trung tam (low block) co the buoc doi thu phai thuc hien nhung cu sut tu bien hoac tu khoang cach xa – nhung tinh huong thuong co do chinh xac va suc manh thap.[/size]

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[size= 14px]Khi phan tich ket qua bong da, chung ta can xem xet: Doi nao kiem soat duoc cac khu vuc nguy hiem (khu vuc 14, khu vuc hinh thang)? So cu sut cua doi bi ap dao co phai do ho khong the xuyen pha hang phong ngu day dac khong? Hoac do la ket qua cua nhung pha phan cong chop nhoang, tan dung sai lam cua doi phuong?[/size]

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[size= 14px]Ket Luan: So Cu Sut La Goi Y, Khong Phai Phan Quyet[/size]

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[size= 14px]So cu sut ro rang la mot chi so quan trong de danh gia muc do tan cong va su chu dong cua mot doi bong trong mot tran dau. No cung cap du lieu co ban ve ap luc duoc tao ra. Tuy nhien, no khong phai la yeu to duy nhat quyet dinh ket qua bong da.[/size]

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[size= 14px]De co cai nhin toan dien, nguoi ham mo va cac nha phan tich can dat so cu sut vao boi canh cua chat luong co hoi (xG), hieu suat dut diem thuc te, va suc manh cua hang phong ngu doi phuong. Mot doi bong co the thua ve so cu sut nhung thang ve hieu qua. Cuoi cung, bong da la mon the thao ma ban thang moi la thuoc do cuoi cung, va viec chuyen doi mot cu sut thanh ban thang moi la dieu thuc su quan trong tren bang diem. Xem them: 9win, Bai viet lien quan: [/size]

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[size= 14px]https://www.nongkhaempolice.com/forum/topic/64486/kqbd[/size]

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[size= 14px]https://www.navacool.com/forum/topic/264416/kqbd[/size]

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[size= 14px]https://www.natthadon-sanengineering.com/forum/topic/61018/kqbd[/size]

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